Spring Has Sprung: StanChart Declares Crypto Winter Buried at $59K ❄️🌱

Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, told clients in a Friday note that bitcoin's drop to roughly $59,000 on June 5 marked the definitive bottom of the current crypto cycle, writing "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring." CoinDesk data shows bitcoin touched as low as $59,375 on June 5 around 18:00 UTC and hovered just shy of $64,000 at the time of the note, with bitcoin ($BTC) most recently trading around $66,473.14. Kendrick pegged the cycle low at $59,000, a 53% drawdown from the Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000, and reaffirmed year-end targets of $100,000 for bitcoin and $4,000 for ether ($ETH), with ether expected to outperform.

Kendrick cited two catalysts behind his turnaround call. First, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their sharpest selling since launch, with total redemptions exceeding $5.72 billion since the second week of May, including a roughly $4.3 billion outflow streak across 13 straight sessions. He said ETF holders anecdotally liquidated positions to free cash for SpaceX's record $75 billion listing, the largest in history, with shares beginning trading on Nasdaq at around $150 and rising about 26% above the IPO price. Hyperliquid reported SpaceX crypto contracts trading with high volume and a valuation of up to $2.4 trillion. Second, a G7-related U.S.-Iran peace framework, tied to a deal President Trump said could be signed within days before the June 15-17 G7 summit in Evian, could cap oil prices, cool rising U.S. Treasury yields and ease macro pressure on crypto markets.

To confirm the floor, Kendrick identified three indicators: renewed bitcoin purchases by Strategy (MSTR), a return to positive spot ETF inflows and continued weakness in oil prices. All three materialized by Monday, when Strategy disclosed it bought another 1,587 BTC last week, with founder Michael Saylor posting "Still adding dots" alongside his characteristic chart. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $85.84 million on Friday, with five funds seeing inflows and eight recording no net change, according to SoSoValue, while crude oil futures fell for a second straight day. Kendrick also pointed to a decisive break above bitcoin's early May high near $83,000 as a strong confirmation of a new uptrend.

Not all firms agree on the bottom. Galaxy Research head of firmwide research Alex Thorn argued in a data-heavy cycle study that the four-year cycle is compressing, with only four of 13 signals that marked every prior bottom having triggered. Thorn noted the current 51% decline remains far milder than the 77% to 85% drops that ended past cycles, and that previous bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after each top, while this cycle sits just eight months past its October peak. Galaxy's base case puts the floor between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving by late 2026. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong separately said bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000.

Crypto markets rallied sharply on June 15 as oil prices extended a multiweek decline toward the low-$80 range, with WTI having traded above $100 earlier this year on fears over the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin climbed more than 4% over 24 hours, ether ($ETH) rose nearly 10%, XRP gained over 12% and Solana advanced more than 11% as traders rotated into higher-beta assets. The move followed reports of a preliminary U.S.-Iran stabilization framework tied to sanctions relief, shipping access and future nuclear negotiations, though several major issues, including uranium enrichment limits, sanctions enforcement and inspection mechanisms, remain under negotiation.