Hormuz Who? Bitcoin Pops Past $65K While Oil Takes the L

Bitcoin climbed to a two-week high above $65,500 on Monday after the United States and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pulling the geopolitical premium out of oil and pushing it back into risk assets. The token traded around $65,844, up 2.1% over 24 hours and roughly 9% above the sub-$60,000 low it touched last week, its weakest level since October 2024, according to CoinDesk data. It later extended to about $66,570, a gain of 3.5%, per TradingView. Ether rose 2.5% to $1,721, solana added 3.6% to $71 and XRP gained 3.2% to $1.19, while Hyperliquid's HYPE jumped 7.5% to nearly $65. BNB and dogecoin both added more than 1%. The rally in digital assets tracked a broader risk-on move, with the Nikkei 225 heading for a record close, S&P 500 futures up 1.2% and the dollar weakening against major peers.

Brent crude fell more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium that had kept oil elevated since late February. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal first, followed by President Donald Trump on Truth Social and Iranian state media. Trump said "ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz," adding that they were traveling "along the Southern 'Highway,' which is totally safe, secure, and pristine." He also said the Strait would reopen fully on Friday upon signing in Switzerland, a date confirmed by other reports. Neither side has released the full text of the agreement, though its broad contours had been circulating for days.

Despite the price move, traders and analysts cautioned that the relief rally may be limited by softer institutional demand for crypto. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Decrypt that the U.S.-Iran deal does not address bitcoin's "genuinely soft institutional demand" and that "a peace deal alone does not bring that capital back." He added that investors are unlikely to fully price in a resolution until the signing in Switzerland on Friday. Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, said bitcoin's recent levels looked "significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective" and that most negative news is already priced in after months of geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

Demand headwinds remain visible in the data. Spot bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May's $2.4 billion in outflows, with a $214 million outflow on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue. Total net assets in those products have declined since May 10, and more than $4.8 billion of U.S. capital has exited bitcoin ETF products since May. Strategy's disclosure earlier this month that it sold 32 bitcoin to fund preferred-share dividends also rattled the market, exposing how much of crypto's bid had rested on the assumption that the company would not sell. Prediction-market users remain cautious, with Myriad users putting a 67% chance on bitcoin's next major move taking it down to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect bitcoin to close 2026 at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.