Peace, Oil, and $65K: Bitcoin Rallies as Hormuz Reopens, But the Skeptics Aren't FOMO-ing Yet 🛢️

Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday after the United States and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the energy-supply fears that have weighed on risk assets for months. The largest cryptocurrency traded around $65,844, up 2.1% over 24 hours, after touching a low near $63,722 in early Asian trading, per CoinDesk data. The move places bitcoin roughly 9% above the sub-$60,000 low hit last week, its weakest level since October 2024.

The rally extended across the market. Ether rose 2.5% to $1,721, solana gained 3.6% to $71 and XRP added 3.2% to $1.19, while Hyperliquid's HYPE jumped 7.5% to nearly $65. BNB and dogecoin each added more than 1%. Brent crude slumped more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium that had supported oil since late February, while Asian stocks gained more than 3% and Japan's Nikkei 225 headed for a record close. S&P 500 futures were up 1.2% and the dollar declined against major peers.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal first, followed by President Donald Trump and Iranian state media. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday upon signing in Switzerland, though neither side has released the full text. The agreement removes a key driver of the recent risk-off move, in which Iran tensions lifted oil, reinforced bets on higher interest rates and pulled capital out of cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Analysts cautioned that the headline-driven bounce may not mark a lasting shift. "A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back," Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Decrypt, referring to what he described as "genuinely soft institutional demand." Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, said bitcoin's recent levels appeared "significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective" and that much of the negative news is already priced in. Levin added that the relief rally "has already partially arrived" and noted investors are unlikely to fully price in a resolution until the signing occurs.

Underlying demand signals remain weak. Bitcoin spot ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May's $2.4 billion outflows, according to SoSoValue data, and a Wednesday outflow of $214 million extended the trend after a June 4 inflow briefly broke a 13-day losing streak that drained roughly $4.4 billion from the products. Since May 10, total net assets in bitcoin ETFs have declined by more than $4.8 billion, and prediction-market users on Myriad put a 67% chance on bitcoin's next major move knocking it down to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect bitcoin to close the year at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.