Winter Called, Galaxy Said No: BTC Bounces Off $59K as Iran Peace Deal Liquidates $246M in Shorts 🧊

Bitcoin fell to nearly $59,000 this week before rebounding above $65,000 after the United States and Iran signed the "Islamabad declaration," ending more than 100 days of military conflict and triggering roughly $246 million in crypto short liquidations. The recovery erased a slide that took BTC from near $73,000 on Sunday to below $60,000 for the first time since the U.S. election in November 2024, and left the largest cryptocurrency up about 5% over the past seven days at roughly $64,000, according to CoinGecko and CoinDesk data. BTC remains roughly 50% below its October 2025 record near $126,000.

The peace agreement, signed by President Donald Trump, included the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply moves. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% on Friday to $86 per barrel, according to Trading Economics, while Brent crude dropped 2% to about $88.50 a barrel. Lower oil pulled U.S. Treasury yields down and reduced inflation pressure, a sequence that directly eased one of the main headwinds crypto had faced during the conflict. Headline inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, but core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% forecast, and 2.9% over the year.

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, wrote in a Friday note that the recent fall to nearly $59,000 marked crypto winter's lowest point. "I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices," he wrote. "Winter is over." Kendrick noted that the Middle East war had pushed energy prices higher, lifting Treasury yields and punishing risk assets, and added that signs of a U.S.–Iran deal ahead of the G7 summit were shaping up as a catalyst. The bank issued a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin in February.

Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz, speaking to Anthony Scaramucci on All Things Markets, said he never thought BTC should trade on a four-year cycle and argued that as the asset matures, that framework may no longer apply. He pointed to BTC trading 4x above its 2022 lows near $15,000 and sitting above Michael Saylor's predicted $45,000 low, while noting that volumes are down 40% and other cryptocurrencies are performing worse. Novogratz said there were investors who went long at $8,000 and held through $126,000, still targeting $300,000 or $400,000. Trader James Wynn closed Bitcoin and Solana shorts for a $6,400 profit before opening a 40x leveraged BTC long worth $373,000 and a 25x leveraged ETH long worth $8,500, according to Lookonchain.

Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31 to fund dividends on its STRC preferred shares, a tiny fraction of its roughly 845,000 BTC holdings representing about 4% of total bitcoin supply. The company also sold about 800,000 shares for $128 million through its at-the-market program in the same week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted roughly $5 billion in net outflows since mid-May, according to CoinGlass, with Kendrick attributing some of the selling to investors freeing cash for SpaceX's listing. The Elon Musk-owned company raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in U.S. history, with pre-listing markets pricing a debut pop of at least 35% and shares already four times oversubscribed. The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for June 17, with markets broadly expecting no change to rates.