CRV's Relief Rally Hits the 78.6% Fib Wall — Bears Still Holding the Guest List 🐻

Curve DAO [CRV] rallied 35.11% from 6 June before encountering resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.266, retreating 9.87% from a local high of $0.2655 set on 12 June to trade down 2.35% over 24 hours as of 13 June. Daily trading volume fell 64% following the rejection, while Open Interest declined 1.83%.

The token's recent bounce unfolded within a higher timeframe downtrend that was confirmed when CRV set a new lower low at $0.17. A May bearish structure break on the 1-day timeframe preceded the recovery, and analysts at AMBCrypto had previously cautioned that a drop below $0.217 would shift the upper hand to bears, a warning that materialized in subsequent weeks.

Short-term indicators initially pointed to additional upside. The RSI on the 4-hour timeframe reached extremely overbought conditions as bulls challenged the $0.245 local resistance zone, with a break above $0.2461 potentially opening a path to the $0.2668 Fibonacci level. Liquidation heatmap data showed clusters of short liquidations overhead, including a magnetic zone bounded by $0.247–$0.263 and an ambitious target at the $0.295 cluster.

Momentum has since cooled. The CMF sank to +0.03, indicating slowing capital inflows, while the RSI and MFI retreated toward 50 without confirming bear dominance. A potential bounce toward $0.27 remained possible based on short liquidation leverage overhead, but the higher timeframe structure stayed bearish.

Exchange inflows reinforced the cautious picture, with the 7-day moving average climbing back into positive territory to its highest 2026 levels. Traders weighing directional positions were advised to look for short entries with a stop-loss above the $0.293 swing high while monitoring for a possible squeeze into the $0.26–$0.27 range.