Four-Year Cycle? Nah: Novogratz Says BTC Just Outgrew Its Halving Fetish 🧊

Bitcoin is changing hands above $62,000 after a bruising two-week slide from above $77,000 that briefly pushed the largest crypto below $60,000 for the first time since November 2024, according to CoinDesk data. Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick said in a Friday note that the drawdown marked the bottom of crypto winter, writing "I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices" and "Winter is over." Bitcoin's fall to nearly $59,000 represented a 53% drawdown from its October 2025 record near $126,000, and the asset remains roughly 50% below that peak. The total value of all cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinGecko edged down to $2.277 trillion over the past week from $2.29 trillion.

Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz told Anthony Scaramucci on All Things Markets that the four-year halving cycle "is not the right framework" as bitcoin matures, rejecting the thesis pushed by Binance's Richard Teng, CZ and other market participants. Novogratz noted bitcoin is trading 4x above its 2022 lows near $15,000, is still above Michael Saylor's predicted low of $45,000, and pointed to long-term holders who entered at $8,000 and "still did not sell at $126,000." He added that bitcoin volumes are down 40% and "the AI bubble was becoming a thing," but that "Bitcoin had won in resilience, though its structure was changing." Peter Schiff has separately predicted bitcoin could drop to $20,000.

Thursday's U.S. inflation report showed headline consumer prices up 0.5% on the month and 4.2% year over year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, with energy climbing 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than 60% of the increase as oil rose on the Iran conflict. Core inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, rose just 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% forecast, and 2.9% over the year. Bitcoin rose about 1.9% over 24 hours to roughly $62,600 following the print and was up about 2.50% on the day at one point, while ether rose 2.78% to roughly $1,673, BNB gained 1.5% to $602 and solana added 3.0% to $67. XRP and dogecoin each rose more than 2%, while TRON declined 2.0%. Over the past week, however, ether is off about 6.5% at roughly $1,651, XRP is down 7.5% near $1.12, solana is down 7.4% around $65, and dogecoin is off 7%, with BNB posting a 2.1% weekly loss.

President Donald Trump said Thursday the U.S. is close to a deal with Iran and that he had "ended the war with Iran today," with Trump saying a formal agreement could be signed in Europe this weekend ahead of next week's G7 summit. Brent crude dropped 2% to about $88.50 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $86 per barrel, while gold and silver prices surged. South Korea's Kospi index rose 8.4%, MSCI's Asia Pacific index gained 3.5% in its biggest rise in two months, US stock futures pointed higher, and European shares were set to open up 1.8%. Traders now await the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting, where markets expect no change to rates.

SpaceX priced its initial public offering on Thursday at a $1.75 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion in what is the largest IPO in U.S. history, with shares four times oversubscribed and some singular entities bidding as much as $10 billion, according to Bloomberg. The stock is set to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday, with pre-listing markets pricing a debut pop of at least 35%. On Hyperliquid, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, making it the eighth-largest asset on the platform. Kendrick wrote that some bitcoin selling likely stems from investors looking to "selling to free up cash to enter the IPO," and that bitcoin ETFs have posted roughly $5 billion in net outflows since mid-May, according to CoinGlass.

Michael Saylor's Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31 to fund dividends on its STRC preferred shares, in a departure from Saylor's longstanding "never sell bitcoin" stance. The company also sold about 800,000 shares for $128 million through its at-the-market program in the same week, and its roughly 845,000 BTC pile represents about 4% of total bitcoin supply. Strategy met the technical requirements for S&P 500 inclusion in September 2025 but was passed over, and some market commentators have argued the bitcoin sale could help reframe the company as one that uses BTC as a corporate treasury asset rather than holds it indefinitely. Trader James Wynn, per Lookonchain, closed his bitcoin and solana shorts for a profit of $6.4K before opening a BTC long with 40x leverage worth $373K and an ETH long with 25x leverage worth $8.50K, reflecting a broader rotation back into the two largest cryptocurrencies.