$59K Was the Crypto Winter Coat Check: Standard Chartered Says Spring Has Sprung 🌱

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick declared on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has set its cycle low, with bitcoin bottoming at approximately $59,000, a 53% decline from its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000. "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Kendrick wrote in a note to clients. CoinDesk data shows $BTC touched as low as $59,375 on June 5 around 18:00 UTC, and at the time of writing was trading just below $64,000.

Kendrick, who holds year-end price targets of $100,000 for $BTC and $4,000 for $ETH, identified two main catalysts that he said support a durable market turnaround. First, he pointed to the recent wave of spot bitcoin ETF redemptions, which have totaled more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, the steepest sustained selling since the products launched. Kendrick said anecdotally that some ETF holders liquidated positions to free up cash for SpaceX's initial public offering, which began trading on Nasdaq on Friday at roughly $150 per share and was last about 26% above its IPO price. Digital asset exchange Hyperliquid recently saw high trading volume in SpaceX-linked contracts, with valuations reaching as high as $2.4 trillion. "The launch of the SpaceX IPO this Friday may bring that specific selling pressure to a close," Kendrick wrote.

Second, Kendrick highlighted a possible G7-brokered peace deal between the U.S. and Iran that, if confirmed, could restrain oil prices, in turn cooling rising U.S. Treasury yields and easing macro pressure on crypto markets. He added that renewed buying from corporate treasuries and positive ETF inflows would further validate a market floor.

To confirm the bottom is in, Kendrick said he is watching for an announcement on Monday regarding Strategy (MSTR) and continued purchases of bitcoin by Michael Saylor's firm, as well as sustained ETF inflows and a U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. Should those conditions materialize, Kendrick reiterated his view that $ETH will outperform $BTC in the months ahead.