America's $34B Prediction Market Leak Is Offshore, Not on Chain 🪙

A study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets estimates that U.S. users generated $11 billion to $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction platforms during the 12 months ending in April 2026, accounting for 12.5% to 31.5% of all American prediction market activity. Authored by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, the analysis compared data from offshore venues that bar U.S. users with platforms serving exclusively American or exclusively non-American customer bases. The Coalition for Prediction Markets counts regulated operators Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase among its members.

Polymarket, identified as the largest offshore platform, accounted for the bulk of the estimated flow, with $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing-12-month volume attributed to U.S. users, despite such users being technically prohibited. The CFTC pushed Polymarket offshore in 2022, and the company said it received a "green light" to launch domestically last fall; it has since rolled out its regulated Polymarket U.S. platform, though Crane's study did not separate that activity due to unreliable data. A Dune dashboard tracks roughly $5 billion in notional volume on the U.S. version of Polymarket to date. A Polymarket representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Crane study also examined other unregulated venues, including Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. Myriad is a product of Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt.

Projections included in the report estimate that, assuming constant relative market shares between regulated and offshore venues, U.S.-linked offshore activity could reach approximately $133 billion in annual volume by 2030.

Separately, the CFTC on Wednesday unveiled a proposed rulemaking framework for the prediction market sector that would bar certain contract types that have proliferated on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, including wagers tied to the timeline of a political leader's removal when the pathway involves war or assassination.