Novogratz Hangs Up "Winter Is Coming" Sign; BTC, Oil, and a $1.75T SpaceX IPO Walk Into a Bar 📈

Bitcoin clawed back above $64,000 on Friday, lifting the broader crypto market after a bruising week that briefly pushed BTC to nearly $59,000 and erased more than $2 trillion in total market capitalization from its early-May peak above $2.50 trillion. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick declared the bottom in, writing in a Friday note that "I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices" and adding, "Winter is over." Kendrick's $100,000 Bitcoin price target, issued in February, was framed against an 53% drawdown from BTC's October high of $126,000. Bitcoin most recently changed hands above $64,000, a 5% weekly gain, while the total crypto market cap tracked by CoinGecko slipped to $2.277 trillion from $2.29 trillion a week earlier. Ether sat near $1,673, BNB around $602, Solana about $67, XRP roughly $1.12, and dogecoin near $0.11, with HYPE leading the day up 7.6% and TRON the only decliner at 2.0%.

Two catalysts did the heavy lifting. President Donald Trump said Thursday that a U.S.-Iran deal could be announced this weekend in Europe, ending a conflict that has driven oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher for more than 100 days. Brent crude fell 2% to about $88.50 a barrel, gold and silver surged, and the Kospi jumped 8.4% with MSCI's Asia Pacific index gaining 3.5%, its biggest rise in two months. U.S. stock futures pointed higher and European shares were set to open up 1.8%. Bitcoin spot ETFs have still seen roughly $5 billion in net outflows since mid-May, per CoinGlass, with Kendrick attributing some of that selling to investors freeing cash for Elon Musk's SpaceX. The satellite, rockets, and AI company listed on Nasdaq Friday after raising $75 billion in the largest U.S. IPO ever, with a $1.8 trillion valuation, a debut pop of at least 35% priced in, and shares already four times oversubscribed, according to Bloomberg. Hyperliquid pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, making it the eighth-largest asset on the venue.

Macro data gave crypto an additional tailwind. Wednesday's inflation report showed headline CPI up 0.5% on the month and 4.2% year over year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, but core CPI, which the Federal Reserve watches, rose just 0.2% on the month versus 0.3% expected and 2.9% year over year, with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase. Traders are now focused on the Fed's June 17 meeting, where markets expect no change to rates. Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz told Anthony Scaramucci on All Things Markets that Bitcoin "is not trading so well currently, with volumes down 40% while other cryptos are way worse," but pushed back on cycle talk, saying "I never thought BTC should trade on a four-year cycle, despite everyone, especially those in China, believing so," a view echoed by Binance's Richard Teng and CZ. Novogratz noted BTC is trading 4x above its 2022 lows near $15,000, well above Michael Saylor's predicted low of $45,000, and pointed to long-term holders who bought near $8,000 and have not sold at $126,000, with targets of $300,000 or $400,000. He also flagged rising concerns that an "AI bubble" is forming, and said Bitcoin had "won in resilience, but its structure was changing." Peter Schiff, meanwhile, has predicted a drop to $20,000.

The bounce drew leveraged action. Trader James Wynn closed Bitcoin and Solana shorts for a $6,400 profit, per Lookonchain, then opened a 40x leveraged BTC long worth $373,000 and a 25x leveraged Ethereum long worth $8,500. The week's price action confirmed the rebound: BTC rose 1.6% to $63,550 on Friday and 1.4% over the week after touching levels last seen in 2024, ether added 1.3% to $1,673, and Solana gained 3.0%. WTI crude fell 1.5% to $86 a barrel, and on Myriad, Decrypt's prediction market, traders grew confident that U.S. oil will fall to $55 before $120. Kendrick's call still hinges on confirmation, including a return of net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs and a formal Iran deal.