SpaceX IPO Yanks $75B From Orbit, and Crypto Feels the Gravitational Pull 🪙

Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing what analysts are calling the largest U.S. initial public offering on record, a $75 billion raise valuing the rocket and spacecraft manufacturer at $1.77 trillion and ranking it as the seventh most valuable company in the country. The company is offering 555 million shares at $135 apiece, according to an SEC filing, and the deal is reportedly 5x oversubscribed. SpaceX has reserved about 30% of the offering, roughly $22.5 billion, for retail investors, with participation opened from as little as $2,000.

Market participants say the IPO is drawing capital from the same pool that typically flows into cryptocurrencies, putting direct pressure on digital assets. "Crypto is a funding currency for a lot of this," said Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at GSR. "We've got to find $75 billion for this IPO, and it's got to come from somewhere." Adam Morgan McCarthy, lead researcher at digital asset liquidity firm LO:TECH, told Decrypt that "retail and institutional money has been moving out of risk assets to secure SpaceX allocation, and that pressure does not disappear the moment trading opens," adding, "The open is when you find out whether the overhang was already priced in or whether there is another leg down." Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said the base case is a short-term liquidity drain, noting that capital that might otherwise have entered crypto or other speculative markets has been absorbed by the deal.

The IPO's impact is already visible on Hyperliquid, where pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, making SPCX the eighth-largest asset by volume on the platform, ahead of most crypto and tradfi-listed perps and on par with $SOL, despite offering only 5x leverage compared to $SOL's 20x. $BTC was recently trading near $61,800, more than 50% below its all-time high set last year, and posted its biggest weekly drop since late 2022. Crypto ETF outflows have also accelerated in recent weeks, adding to the bearish backdrop.

Analysts are split on the path forward. McCarthy said, "This IPO is unlikely to be the catalyst that turns Bitcoin around. If anything, it is more likely to continue sucking the air out of the room." Otychenko outlined a bullish alternative, stating that "if the stock delivers strong post-listing gains—and SPCX currently suggests so—some of those initial gains could eventually rotate into crypto," particularly among retail traders. The SpaceX listing is expected to be added to the Nasdaq 100 shortly after trading begins, channeling further exposure through broad-market index allocations.