JPMorgan Hands $BTC the Cold Shoulder as Debasement Trade Stages a Quiet Exit

JPMorgan has dialed back its bullish stance on Bitcoin, with strategists at the bank led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointing to an accelerating retreat from the so-called debasement trade that had supported BTC's price through much of 2024. Bitcoin (BTC) was last trading near $107,000 on Thursday, slipping from highs above $124,000 set earlier in the year as gold and silver also pulled back from record levels. The bank's analysts said the unwind of debasement positioning is gathering pace, with flows that had once favored hard assets now reversing. Panigirtzoglou and his team previously argued that concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and currency debasement were a key driver of Bitcoin's rally alongside gold, a thesis now being tested as both assets lose momentum.

The shift in JPMorgan's commentary comes as macro conditions have stabilized, with Treasury yields easing from multi-month highs and risk appetite returning to equities. The bank noted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which surged earlier in the year as investors positioned for currency debasement, has begun to fade. According to the strategists, the debasement trade has lost roughly half of its momentum since October, based on flows and positioning data. They added that further unwind would likely weigh on BTC in the near term, though they stopped short of issuing a specific price target.

On-chain data and derivatives markets reflect the cooling sentiment. Open interest on BTC futures across major exchanges has declined from September peaks, and funding rates have normalized after extended periods of positive carry that signaled heavy long positioning. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, which absorbed billions in net inflows during the rally, have recorded a steady drumbeat of outflows in recent weeks, according to fund-flow trackers. The combination of reduced institutional demand and JPMorgan's more cautious framing has added to the cautious tone across trading desks.

The broader crypto market has tracked Bitcoin's drift lower, with Ether (ETH) also easing and major altcoins trading in a tight range. Traders cited the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting as a key near-term catalyst, with rate-cut expectations recalibrating after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data. JPMorgan's analysts said the debasement thesis remains intact over the longer horizon but acknowledged that short-term positioning has turned against the trade. Bitcoin's next directional move is likely to hinge on macro prints and risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts, according to the note.