Bitcoin's Bull Case Still on Probation as Weekly RSI Refuses to Clock In Above 41.5

Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index remained below the 41.5 threshold on June 12, a level that has historically separated bullish and bearish market regimes across multiple cycles, according to crypto data analytics platform Material Indicators. BTC was last seen at $62,895.02, recovering overnight to $64,000 after dipping under $60,000 in recent sessions, though the bounce has not yet been confirmed by the momentum gauge traders typically use to validate a new uptrend.

The 14-week RSI, which ranges from 0 to 100, treats readings above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold, with 41.5 functioning as the dividing line for bitcoin's macro trend. "Right now, Bitcoin is below it, and still trending down," Keith Alan, an analyst at Material Indicators, said in an email. "That does not mean price has to collapse, but it does mean the burden of proof is still on the bulls." The indicator held above 41.5 throughout the bull run from January 2024 to November 2025, and the same pattern played out during the 2020-21 and 2015-17 bull markets. Conversely, the most intense phases of bear markets have consistently seen the indicator trade below that level.

Traders monitoring the chart said price rebounds in prior cycles were initially treated as relief rallies within broader downtrends until the weekly RSI reclaimed the dividing line, a pattern that has yet to repeat in the current cycle. BTC's overnight move to $64,000 from lows under $60,000 marked the latest attempt to reverse the slide, but with the weekly gauge still printing below 41.5, no confirmation of a bottom has been issued.

Material Indicators' data, tracked on TradingView's weekly candlestick charts, shows the threshold has been respected through multiple regimes, lending weight to its use as a regime filter rather than a short-term signal. The article was originally reported by Omkar Godbole and edited by Sheldon Reback, and was published on June 12, 2026 at 9:57 a.m., updated at 11:43 a.m.