Novogratz to BTC Doomers: Four-Year Cycle Is So 2021 📉

Bitcoin rebounded above $63,550 on Friday after a week of risk-off selling, with the recovery fueled by softer U.S. core inflation data and a sudden de-escalation in the conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was close to a deal with Iran and that he had "ended the war with Iran today." Traders read the remarks as the trigger for a broad rebound in risk assets, with Brent crude dropping 2% to about $88.50 a barrel and gold and silver posting sharp gains. South Korea's Kospi rose 8.4%, MSCI's Asia Pacific index gained 3.5% in its biggest rise in two months, and European shares were set to open up 1.8%.

Crypto majors traded higher alongside the relief rally. Ether rose 1.3% to $1,673, BNB gained 1.5% to $602, Solana added 3.0% to $67, while XRP and dogecoin each rose more than 2%. Hyperliquid's HYPE led the field, up 7.6% on the day, with TRON the only decliner at 2.0%. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had dipped below $60,000 to levels last seen in 2024 before recovering. Bitcoin is up 1.4% over the past seven days, a sharp turn from a session that opened with bear-market lows.

Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz pushed back on bearish calls during a conversation with Anthony Scaramucci, host of All Things Markets, when asked whether there was a thesis break on Bitcoin following the market breakdown. Novogratz said he never thought BTC should trade on a four-year cycle, despite many in the industry, including Binance's Richard Teng and CZ, believing so. "This is despite some experts like Peter Schiff saying so," Novogratz noted, referencing Schiff's prediction that Bitcoin could drop to $20K. Novogratz added that the bullish case is that Bitcoin trades 4x above its 2022 lows around $15K, a move gold has yet to replicate, and sits above Michael Saylor's predicted low of $45K. He also pointed to long-term holders who entered at $8K and have continued to hold, with targets as high as $300K or $400K, including through the $126K print. Still, Novogratz acknowledged Bitcoin is "not trading so well currently," with volumes down 40%, and warned that "the AI bubble was becoming a thing," adding that Bitcoin had won on resilience even as its structure was changing.

Traders followed the rebound in size. According to Lookonchain, James Wynn closed his Bitcoin and Solana shorts for a profit of $6.4K and opened two leveraged longs: a BTC position at 40x leverage worth $373K and an Ethereum [ETH] position at 25x leverage worth $8.50K. Bitcoin was up 2.50% on the move while ETH rose 2.78%.

Macro signals remain split. Headline U.S. inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, with energy climbing 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than 60% of the increase as oil rose on the Iran conflict. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% forecast, and 2.9% over the year. Markets are now focused on the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting, where no rate change is expected, and on SpaceX's listing on Nasdaq on Friday after raising $75 billion in the largest IPO ever, with pre-listing markets pricing a debut pop of at least 35% at a $1.8 trillion valuation.