BTC's Four-Year Cycle Is Alive, Kicking, and Eyeing a $53K Spa Day 🛁

Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains structurally intact, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen, who stated, "The four-year cycle for Bitcoin is not broken. In fact, BTC's average drawdown in midterm years is nearly identical to what it is now." Cowen pointed to BTC's current performance as mirroring past U.S. midterm elections, noting the widely held pre-2024 view that the U.S. spot BTC ETFs debut would break the pattern has not held up against recent price action. For perspective, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs launch in 2024 was widely viewed as a key update that would break the 4-year cycle, but key metrics now align with Cowen's stance.

On-chain data backs that read. Analyst Checkonchain noted that BTC price action has been flirting with the 200-weekly MA (Moving Average) evaluation model (200WMA Quantile), the same dynamic level where the past market cycle bottom formed. The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin is trading relative to its 200-week moving average, and current readings sit in the bottom ~10% of all historical observations, a region only visited during the deepest stages of prior bear markets. As of writing, BTC traded at $63K and could extend its recovery after retesting its February low last week.

CryptoQuant, however, sees room for a deeper leg down. The firm flagged BTC's realized price level of $53.5K as a "structural floor" seen in past bear markets, including the 2022 bottom, and warned that current demand is "deeply unfavorable" for a sustained rebound. In its weekly market report, CryptoQuant added, "Demand conditions remain deeply unfavorable, with total Bitcoin demand (speculative futures and apparent spot) plunging to -652K BTC last week, the largest contraction since January 2022." The platform said the weak demand meant there was a high chance that the BTC price could slip below $60K.

If historical cycle patterns repeat, BTC could form a true bottom in Q3 or Q4 2026, which would also mark the early phase of the next bull run.