$2B in Crypto Bets Says Nobody Knows Who Wins the World Cup ⚽

Crypto prediction markets crossed $2 billion in World Cup winner wagers as the tournament opened in Mexico City on Thursday, with millions of traders split on which nation will lift the trophy. The combined volume across Polymarket ($1.9 billion) and Kalshi ($132 million) makes the event the largest single prediction market in crypto history, according to data from both platforms. Spain and France sit at the top of the board at roughly 16.5% and 16.1% respectively, while defending champion Argentina trails at 9%, a lower implied probability than any of the four European sides ranked above it. England and Portugal each hold around 11%, with Brazil at 8%. Polymarket opened its World Cup winner market in July 2025 and is now running 328 live World Cup markets, with $66 million traded in the past 24 hours and $352.7 million in active liquidity behind those positions.

The $2 billion milestone caps a year in which prediction markets became a fixture of major 2025 events, from the US presidential race to the Super Bowl. Volume on the World Cup winner market accelerated sharply as kickoff approached, and the platform registered its single largest 24-hour trading window in the days before the opening match. Every group-stage result will trigger repricings across both platforms, and traders are watching closely to see whether the Spain-France deadlock holds or one of the second-tier contenders breaks through.

This tournament also marks FIFA's first official move into on-chain prediction infrastructure. ADI Predictstreet, an official FIFA partner powered by Chainlink, is running a parallel market alongside Polymarket and Kalshi. "Chainlink is powering new @FIFAWorldCup prediction markets for @MyriadMarkets," the Chainlink account posted on June 10, adding that the opening round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup "kicks off in just 2 days." With 38 days and 104 matches remaining, the market has the time and the fixtures needed to break its current deadlock.