Coinbase, Robinhood brace for $10B prediction market World Cup bump ⚽

Coinbase and Robinhood are positioned to be the largest beneficiaries of a projected $5 billion to $10 billion surge in consumer prediction market activity tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a research report from Bernstein published Thursday. Matches in the expanded tournament are scheduled to start Thursday, with FIFA expecting roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The 104-match format is set to reshape what is traditionally the slowest period of the year for online sports betting, with Bernstein estimating the tournament will generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle.

Bernstein analysts said Coinbase has established itself as a major player in the sector, surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March, just months after launching the product. The crypto exchange rolled out prediction markets nationwide through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users in all 50 US states to trade event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture and other real-world outcomes. Robinhood is also expected to capture a significant share of the new activity, with Bernstein writing, "[W]e expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood," and forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026. Bernstein noted the brokerage is using the event to launch Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets.

Sports have emerged as the dominant driver of prediction market growth. An April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of users. In March alone, sports betting accounted for more than 39% of prediction market volumes, according to Bitget Wallet and Polygon, underscoring a structural shift in user behavior away from one-off events such as elections toward recurring categories.

Regulatory momentum is also building around the sector. The CFTC on Wednesday issued draft rules for prediction markets signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law classifies them as "gaming." Industry players are moving to capitalize on the heightened attention, with Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly eyeing $20 billion valuations in potential fundraising rounds.