Bernstein: World Cup 2026 Could Score Prediction Markets a $10B Goal ⚽

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday across North American stadiums, and analysts at investment firm Bernstein are projecting more than $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across sports betting and prediction platforms over the tournament's month-long run. The 104 matches in the expanded 48-team format represent roughly 60% more bettable inventory than previous tournaments, a notable lift during what is traditionally the slowest stretch of the online sports betting calendar. Bernstein called the World Cup a "potential watershed moment" for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, saying it could accelerate momentum already building around Kalshi and Polymarket.

"Predictions are already inflecting ahead of the first whistle: DraftKings disclosed this week that May annualized consumer volume rose 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion and total volume traded rose 34% to $3.1 billion, extending a steep three-month ramp," Bernstein analysts wrote. The firm added that it has "long argued that prediction markets represent a new sports engagement monetization layer rather than an existential threat to the books (TikTok, not Napster)," noting that Kalshi and Polymarket have scaled quickly, predominantly in California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida, and that the World Cup could create an opportunity for the rest of the field to accelerate customer acquisition into what is likely to be a trillion-dollar volume market by 2030.

Robinhood is using the event to commercially launch Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange, while Coinbase—which said it crossed $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue within two months of launching the product in early 2026—is offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership. Users on Myriad, a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, currently favor Spain to win the World Cup with an 18% chance, with France just behind at 17%.

Separately, CryptoQuant reported that $BTC may be moving closer to a bear market bottom after falling below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, though the firm said there is not enough demand to sustain price growth. CryptoQuant puts Bitcoin's realized price, the average cost basis for all market participants, around $53,600, about 13% below BTC's current trading price around $61,500. Consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace in three years according to inflation numbers released Wednesday, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance and potentially put further pressure on crypto prices.